Carbon dioxide capture and utilization potential in Central Ostrobothnia region

Climate change is accelerating the phase-out of fossil fuels and the adoption of low carbon alternatives. In Central Ostrobothnia, electricity and heat production already include a significant share of renewable energy, largely because most combined heat and power (CHP) and heat-only plants use biomass as their primary fuel. The region is also experiencing rapid growth in wind and solar projects, strengthening its position in renewable energy deployment.

However, transport remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and additional solutions are required to decarbonize heavy-duty road transport, aviation, and maritime sectors. The Renewable Energy Directive (RED III; Directive (EU) 2023/2413), which entered into force on 20 November 2023, sets targets for 2030 across sectors, including transport. In transport sector, member States must achieve either a 29% share of renewable energy in final energy consumption in transport or a 14.5% reduction in the greenhouse-gas (GHG) intensity of transport fuels. In addition, RED III also sets a 5.5% combined sub-target for advanced biofuels and renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs), including a minimum 1% share for RFNBOs (Directive (EU) 2023/2413 2023). 

Electrification is progressing rapidly, but it is not sufficient on its own for all transport segments. Hydrogen and electro fuels (e-fuels) can complement electrification by enabling decarbonization in applications where batteries are constrained by energy density, range, or refuelling requirements. Furthermore, many e-fuels can also be used in existing engines and fuel-distribution infrastructure, supporting near-term deployment.

A critical input for e-fuel production is carbon dioxide (CO₂), and the availability of capturable CO₂ streams is often a bottleneck for project development. This report, produced as part of the Decentralized, Low-Carbon Energy Production Concept in Central Ostrobothnia project funded by the European Union and Keski-Pohjanmaan Liitto, assesses (i) the availability of CO₂ from regional energy production and regional hydrogen production potential; and (ii) the corresponding potential to produce selected e-fuels based on stoichiometric conversion.

Methodology

A study was conducted, drawing primarily on secondary data from national statistics, relevant literature and environmental impact assessment reports. These sources were complemented by a field visit, which was used to verify key information and address data gaps, particularly for biogas plants. 

Fuel consumption data for energy plants were obtained mainly from the Finnish Energy database, using 2023 as the reference year (Energiateollisuus 2024a). Where plant-level data were missing, information was supplemented through direct communication with energy producers and observations during the field visit. Emission factors were taken from Statistics Finland’s database (Tilastokeskus 2024).

Planned electrification of district heating was included in the assessment. Kokkola Energia’s planned installation of two 60 MW electric boilers (total 120 MW) was assumed to produce 100 GWh of heat annually. This was represented in the analysis by reducing the corresponding fuel use and associated combustion-related CO₂ emissions. (Yle 2025.)

Hydrogen production was estimated by assuming that the net annual surplus renewable electricity remaining after local electricity consumption is used for water electrolysis. Any surplus electricity was assumed as renewable, as the fossil-based share of local generation is negligible. To reflect uncertainty in the realization of renewable electricity production projects and future industrial electricity demand, two scenarios (low and high) were defined. In both scenarios, existing electricity generation and renewable electricity projects under construction were included. However, in the low scenario, projects in the planning phase were assumed to have a 25% realization probability to reflect implementation uncertainty, whereas in the high scenario all planned renewable electricity projects were assumed to be realized. Future industrial electricity demand was treated conservatively in both case by assuming that only 50% of announced industrial projects are realized. Hydrogen output was calculated by converting the electricity available for electrolysis to hydrogen mass using a specific electricity consumption of 47.6 kWh/kg H₂ (electrolyser only; assumed 70% efficiency) (The Engineering ToolBox 2023). Electricity demand for compression, storage, and distribution was not included. 

Synthetic fuel production was assessed using two CO₂ capture scenarios (low and high). In the low capture scenario, CO₂ was assumed to be captured only from three major point sources: Kokkola Energia, WEGA, and One1 Oy & Kaustisen Turkisrehu Oy. Kokkola Energy currently produces CO₂, whereas Wega and One1 Oy & Kaustisen Turkisrehu Oy are in different phases of development. In addition to the low-capture scenario, the high-capture scenario is expanded to include all combined heat and power (CHP) and heat-only plants (see APPENDIX 1a), as well as biogas facilities (see APPENDIX 1b). This simplified, annualized calculation does not capture hourly and seasonal variation in CO₂ generation. A CO₂ capture efficiency of 90% was assumed for all modelled capture sources and only biogenic CO₂ was considered in the synthetic fuel production calculations.

Central Ostrobothnia includes nine combined heat and power (CHP) and heat-only plants. Figure 1 illustrates the fuel types used by these installations. In 2023, their total fuel consumption was 474.83 GWh, dominated by solid biomass side streams (67.59%), followed by peat (31.03%) and light fuel oil (1.38%) (Energiateollisuus 2024a). Based on this fuel use, the CHP and heat-only plants emit approximately 187.62 kt CO₂/year.

Synthetic fuel production potential was estimated for three pathways—e-methane (methanation), e-methanol (methanol synthesis), and Fischer–Tropsch (FT) synthesis—based on the availability of captured biogenic carbon dioxide. The equations and values used for these calculations are provided in APPENDIX 2. The Fischer-Tropsch synthesis produces a wide range of n-alkane products. The products ranging from methane (CH₄) to butane (C₄H₁₀) are in gaseous form, hydrocarbons from pentane (C₅H₁₂) to eicosane (C₂₀H₄₂) are liquid, and those with carbon numbers greater than C₂₀ are typically waxes. The weight fraction (Wₙ) of each hydrocarbon product is estimated using the Anderson-Schulz-Flory (ASF) distribution. (Gray et al. 2022.) The estimates represent the stoichiometric production potential from the available CO₂ in the low and high capture scenarios (i.e., assuming complete conversion and excluding process losses and efficiency constraints).

For e-methane, the potential output is approximately 44.71 kt CH₄/year in the low capture scenario and 56.44 kt CH₄/year in the high capture scenario, requiring 22.48 kt H₂/year (low) and 28.37 kt H₂/year (high) respectively. For e-methanol, the production potential is approximately 89.30 kt CH₃OH/year (low) and 112.S72 kt CH₃OH/year (high), with hydrogen demands of 16.86 kt H₂/year (low) and 21.28 kt H₂/year (high) respectively.

For FT synthesis, FT products were estimated on a CH₂-equivalent basis. Under this assumption, the potential production is approximately 39.10 kt FT-products/year in the low capture scenario and 49.35 kt FT-products/year in the high capture scenario, with associated hydrogen demands of approximately 16.86 kt H₂/year and 21.28 kt H₂/year respectively.

The results indicate that the region has strong potential to produce renewable hydrogen and hydrogen-derived products. However, realized production volumes will depend on the extent to which planned renewable electricity projects are implemented. From this perspective, timely project realization is critical to ensure sufficient renewable electricity supply for electrolysis. The planned national hydrogen pipeline route passing through the region also provides an important opportunity to connect local production to broader markets.

Biogenic CO₂ is also a key input for e-fuels. Interest in using available biomass to strengthen the bioeconomy is increasing, and several large-scale biogas projects under development are expected to increase CO₂ availability in the future. These developments create additional opportunities to capture biogenic CO₂ and use it as a feedstock for synthetic fuels. Combined with renewable hydrogen, this can support decarbonization in hard-to-abate sectors and contribute to achieving Finland’s broader climate targets.